Stock Market News Xtra

OIL FUTURES: Crude Benchmarks Settle At 9-Month Highs On Iran – Wall Street Journal

admin — Wed, 22 Feb 2012 23:25:03 +0000

–UN nuclear official says Iran talks at an impasse

–Iran supreme leader vows to continue nuclear power program

–Market pricing in potential for conflict, analysts say

(Adds API data.)

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)–U.S. and European benchmark oil prices rose to fresh nine-month highs Wednesday amid rising tensions over what the West says is Iran’s efforts to build a nuclear weapon.

The chief United Nations nuclear inspector investigating Iran’s alleged atomic weapons drive said Wednesday negotiations have reached an impasse following a high-stakes, two-day visit to the Islamic republic.

Despite requests, “we could not get access” to Iran’s military site in …

Grains, Soy May Open Lower on Beneficial Weather, Easing Demand – Bloomberg

admin — Wed, 22 Feb 2012 18:32:10 +0000

What follows are opening calls for U.S. grain and oilseed markets.

– Wheat futures may open 2 cents to 4 cents a bushel lower on the Chicago Board of Trade, the Kansas City Board of Trade and the Minneapolis Grain Exchange on speculation that rising global supplies will damp demand for U.S. exports, Don Roose, the president of U.S. Commodities Inc. in West Des Moines, Iowa, said in a telephone interview. Precipitation in the next two weeks may boost prospects for U.S. yields, he said,

– Corn futures are called to open 2 cents to 3 cents a bushel lower in Chicago as rain in South America aids developing crops, while two U.S. Midwest snowstorms in the next week increase soil-moisture reserves before the planting season that begins in April, Roose said.

– Soybean futures may open 1 cent to 3 cents a bushel lower on the CBOT on speculation that rain will boost crops in Brazil and Argentina, reducing demand for U.S. supplies, Roose said. Soybean-oil futures are expected to open 0.15 cent to 0.2 cent a pound lower, and soybean-meal futures may open down 50 cents to $ 1 per 2,000 pounds.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jeff Wilson in Chicago at jwilson29@.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Steve Stroth at sstroth@.net

US gold, copper retreat after rallies, dollar rises – Reuters

admin — Wed, 22 Feb 2012 16:30:39 +0000

Live Trading News

US gold, copper retreat after rallies, dollar rises
Reuters
Feb 22 – - US gold and copper futures fell Wednesday as a dollar rise prompted investors to take profits after the previous session's rallies driven by Greece's bailout deal. FUNDAMENTALS * US gold futures prices retreated from an earlier …
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Corn and wheat prices fall on profit-taking

admin — Wed, 22 Feb 2012 11:25:05 +0000

Doane Agricultural Services | Updated: February 21, 2012

Corn futures traded strongly lower on Tuesday. Profit-taking weighed on the market ahead of the USDA annual outlook forum later this week. USDA is expected to increase its acreage estimate for corn this year, which would raise its production estimate to a record level. The market failed to find support from outside markets, but weakness in the dollar index and strength in the stock market and crude oil helped limit further losses. March closed 12 1/4 cents lower at $ 6.29 1/2 and December ended 4 1/2 cents lower at $ 5.63 3/4.

Soybean futures settled slightly higher on Tuesday. The market was choppy during the trading session. Fresh export demand for U.S. soybeans and concern about the declining production estimates for South American soybeans supported the market. However, gains were limited by spillover weakness in corn and on traders being cautious ahead of the USDA annual outlook conference later this week. March closed 3 1/2 cents higher at $ 12.71 and November was 1/4 of a cent higher at $ 12.62 1/4.

Wheat futures closed lower on Tuesday. The market was pressured by profit-taking from gains last week as traders were positioning for USDA’s annual outlook forum later this week. Ideas of a larger corn crop are bearish for wheat and especially SRW as it is a competing feedgrain. Weather forecasts call for some snowfall in the northern Plains, which would provide welcomed moisture ahead of spring planting. CBOT March ended 11 cents lower at $ 6.33, KCBT March was 12 1/2 cents lower at $ 6.77 and MGE March closed 5 1/2 cents lower at $ 8.16 3/4.

Cattle futures traded mostly higher on Tuesday. The market was pressured lightly much of the day by profit-taking and technical selling as futures are at or near contract highs. However, front end futures turned higher at the close following the strength in the cash market last week and optimism for strength to continue this week. Smaller showlists and recent strength in beef prices are fundamentally supportive factors. April was 30 cents higher at $ 128.90 and June ended 20 cents higher at $ 128.68.

Lean hog futures closed mostly lower on Tuesday. Pork cutout prices were down 41 cents on Monday and the futures market was pressured by concern that pork demand is sluggish at current prices. In addition there is talk that supplies of pork in cold storage are increasing. Losses were limited by steady to firm cash bids. Packer margins are poor, but some plants need hogs to fill slaughter schedules following plant closures on Monday for Presidents Day. April ended 55 cents lower at $ 89.83 and June was 3 cents lower at $ 99.35.

NY sugar ends at 3-mth high, cocoa and coffee jump – Reuters

admin — Wed, 22 Feb 2012 07:02:06 +0000

Tue Feb 21, 2012 2:16pm EST

Feb 21 - - Raw sugar futures on ICE soared to
close at a three-month high on Tuesday on heavy short-covering
plus on support from the broadbased buying throughout the
commodity complex as the macro sentiment turned positive.
    U.S. cocoa futures closed at a three-week high after
breaking above the 100-day moving average, while arabica coffee
also moved higher.
    The markets were be closed on Monday, for the President's
Day holiday.    

 2:00 PM      SETTLE    NET     PCT      LOW    HIGH  CURRENT
                       CHNG    CHNG                       VOL
 Sugar MAR     25.35   0.73    3.0%    24.65   25.40   30,103
 Sugar MAY     24.47    0.7    2.9%    23.81   24.50   66,862
 Cocoa MAR      2456     67    2.8%    2,373   2,430       19
 Cocoa MAY      2424     79    3.4%    2,345   2,447   10,378
 Coffee MAR   204.65    4.6    2.3%   199.00  205.00      788
 Coffee MAY   206.05    3.7    1.8%   200.40  206.75   10,898

 TOTAL MARKET              VOLUME
                CURRENT   30D AVG  250D AVG
 ICE SUGAR      164,574   103,854    87,358
 ICE COCOA       14,171    25,495    18,916
 ICE COFFEE      15,413    24,788    19,622

    * March raw sugar futures jumped 0.73 cent, or 3
percent, to close at 25.35 cents per lb, the highest close since
Nov. 10.
    * May closed up 0.70 cent at 24.47 cents per lb.
    * The premium of March to May closed at 0.88 cent,
widening from 0.85 cent on Friday.
    * March broke through strong resistance at 25 cents for the
first time in one month - traders.
    * Market rallied on short-covering and spillover support
from the firm commodity complex after a second bailout deal for
Greece was agreed upon - traders.
    * Volume was exceptionally heavy at roughly 164,574 lots,
the highest in five months - preliminary Thomson Reuters data.
    * March broke through the 200-day moving average at 25.34
cents.
    * March/May spreading boosted volume ahead of the March
contract's expiry at the end of the month - traders.
    * The International Sugar Organization on Monday increased
its forecast for a projected global sugar surplus in 2011/12 to
5.17 million tonnes, up from a forecast of 4.46 million issued
in its previous quarterly update.       

    COFFEE
    * Key May arabica coffee jumped 3.70 cents, or 1.8
percent, to close at $  2.0605 per lb.
    * Today is first notice day for the March contract.
    * Market jumped on broad-based buying on the commodity
complex - traders.
    * Arabica futures closed higher for the second straight day,
after dropping for seven straight days.
    * March/May spread narrowed to close at a discount of 1.4
cents per lb, from 2.3 cents.   

    COCOA
    * May cocoa futures surged $  79, or 3.4 percent, to
finish at $  2,424 a tonne, the highest close since Jan. 27.
    * March closed at a $  32 premium to May, narrowing
from $  44 on Friday.
    * Market rallied, initially getting a lift from the day's
positive macro sentiment - traders.
    * May extended its gains after reaching the 100-day moving
average at $  2,410 per tonne, triggering buy-stops - traders.
    * Cocoa farmgate prices in top grower Ivory Coast fell last
week as quality dropped alongside volumes at the tail end of the
main crop - farmers, buyers.    

 (Reporting by Marcy Nicholson; Editing by Bob Burgdorfer)

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CREDIT MARKETS: Investors Eye Greece Deal With Caution – Wall Street Journal

admin — Wed, 22 Feb 2012 07:01:50 +0000

Investors viewed Greece’s rescue deal with caution Tuesday, as stocks finished the day around flat, and Treasurys recouped some of their losses.

Meanwhile, companies continued to borrow with ease. Five issuers brought about $ 9.1 billion of investment-grade bonds to the market, and most deals were oversubscribed.

Elsewhere, municipal bonds followed Treasurys lower in price, as more new issue supply also weighed on the market.

For anyone needing evidence that investors still have ready-to-deploy cash for bonds, Tuesday provided it.

Despite a flat backdrop among equities and secondary bond trading, five issuers brought $ 9.1 billion of high-grade debt to the market …

Can the stock market pick the next president?

admin — Wed, 22 Feb 2012 07:01:46 +0000

NEW YORK — The number has been repeated so often by presidential prognosticators that it’s an article of faith: No president has been re-elected since World War II with an unemployment rate higher than 7.2 percent.

But the stock market turns out to be a pretty good predictor, too.

The Dow Jones industrial average has soared 62 percent since President Barack Obama took the oath of office during some of the darkest days of the Great Recession. The Dow was just below 8,000 then and stands near 13,000 today.

If a recent study of stock markets and presidential elections is any guide, Obama can start preparing his second inaugural address.

“There’s something to this,” says Phil Orlando, chief equity market strategist at Federated Investors, the $ 370 billion investment firm.

There are plenty of other signs often consulted for their political forecasting power, like whether a team from the National Football Conference or the American Football Conference wins the Super Bowl.

This one makes a little more sense: When the economy picks up and unemployment falls, confident investors put money into riskier investments and stocks rise. Voters are likely to reward the sitting president with another four years.

“The stock market reflects trends in the economy,” Orlando says. And as any political operative can attest, in a presidential campaign, it’s the economy — you know the rest.

The study was backed by the Socionomics Institute, a think tank studying how a shared mood among a group sways its members’ actions. Their researchers dug up data on economic output, prices, unemployment and stock-market performance and matched them to presidential elections.

They went all the way back to the first re-election in 1792, when George Washington beat John Adams and won a second term as the president.

The researchers found a solid connection between the stock market’s direction in the three years leading up to Election Day and the election results. Gains of 20 percent or more for the Dow nearly assured victories for sitting presidents. Drops of 10 percent or worse got them tossed out.

Voters returned Calvin Coolidge to the White House in 1924, just as the Roaring ’20s started roaring. They booted Herbert Hoover in 1932 while the stock market suffered through a three-year plunge.

The authors of the Socionomics Institute study say everything can be traced back to the prevailing optimism or pessimism. Their organization studies “the social mood.” But how do you read the mood of a whole country?

The authors say that the stock market is the best available gauge of how the country is feeling, “because investors can act swiftly to express their optimism or pessimism.” Bad day? Time to sell. Things looking up? Time to buy.

“An increasingly positive social mood produces a rising stock market as well as votes for the incumbent, and an increasingly negative social mood produces a falling stock market as well as votes against the incumbent,” they write.

To the authors, it’s the mood that determines the election, not the stock market. The stock market is just a reliable gauge of the national temper, an incredibly accurate mood ring.

In recent successful re-election campaigns, the connection appears clear. Ronald Reagan won re-election in 1984 following the Dow’s 41 percent surge and despite an unemployment rate of 7.2 percent. Bill Clinton was awarded a second term after the Dow gained 63 percent in the three years leading up to Election Day.

The Bottom Line: Obama may keep his job even if you lose yours

But there are misfires. James Madison, for instance, won re-election in 1812 despite a 34 percent drop in the market over three years. George H.W. Bush lost to Bill Clinton even though the Dow rose 51 percent over his term in office.

Doug Wead, a presidential historian who served in the elder Bush’s administration, says the stock market theory sounds suspect.

“The stock market isn’t even a good indicator of the economy,” he says. “You can have the stock market going up while the rich get richer and the poor get poorer.”

Story: This could be week stocks’ rally comes to an end

There’s also the danger of oversimplifying — relying on one number, in this case the Dow’s performance, while ignoring everything from scandals and wars to third-party candidates.

In William Howard Taft’s last three years in office, the Dow lost 12 percent, and Taft lost the 1912 election to Woodrow Wilson. But if Theodore Roosevelt hadn’t split from the Republicans and run under the Progressive Party banner against Taft that year, Taft might have returned to office.

It was a similar story with the first President Bush in 1992. The independent candidate Ross Perot siphoned off votes from both candidates, but historians generally believe more came from Bush’s Republican camp. Clinton won with just 43 percent of the popular vote.

The Bottom Line: The 10 richest US presidents

The economy also slipped into a recession during Bush’s second year in office, and as he campaigned for re-election, the unemployment rate hovered well above the dreaded 7.2 percent mark.

Orlando, of Federated Investors, says a change in any single statistic won’t guarantee a president gets re-elected. Analysts should consult a range of figures. One that looks less reassuring for Obama is his approval rating, he says.

No president has been re-elected with a Gallup approval rating below 48 percent approaching Election Day. Obama’s numbers are improving, and the election is more than eight months away, but for now he’s teetering on the edge — 48 percent.

Norway Ctrl Bk Talks Down NOK,Sees Narrow Exit For Investors – Wall Street Journal

admin — Wed, 22 Feb 2012 07:01:38 +0000

(adding analyst comments in lede and fourth paragraph, currency moves in the third paragraph, and a sentence on the policy rate in the fifth paragraph.)

OSLO (Dow Jones)–The Norwegian krone weakened against the euro after dovish comments from Norges Bank Governor Oystein Olsen Tuesday, SEB analyst Erica Blomgren said, noting that the strength of the krone still is “highly important” for the central bank.

“If the krone remains at the present level or strengthens further in …

GBP/USD In Small 60 Pip Range This Week – International Business Times

admin — Wed, 22 Feb 2012 07:01:33 +0000

GBP/USD Open 1.5827 High 1.5881 Low 1.5807 Close 1.5846

On Monday Pound/Dollar decreased insignificantly with 60 pips. The Cable depreciated from 1.5881 to 1.5819 yesterday, in converse with the positive Interbank sentiment at over +56%, closing the day at 1.5846. Today the British Pound descended slightly further, dropping to 1.5807. On the 1 hour chart range trading has formed, while on the 3 hour chart the upward channel is still on hold. First resistance is yesterday’s peak at 1.5881. Break above it should extend the bullish movement further towards 1.6000. The nearest support level is today’s bottom at 1.5807. Going bellow it should extend British Pound’s reduction further down towards next downward objective 1.5680. Today are UK PSNB and PSNBX, both at 9:30 GMT. Quotes are moving in line with the 20 and above 50 EMA on the 1 hour chart, indicating short term neutral and medium term bullish pressure. The value of the RSI indicator is thinly negative and hesitant, MACD is neutral and tranquil, while CCI is in line with the 100 line on the 1 hour chart, giving over all neutral signals.
Technical resistance levels: 1.5881 1.6000 1.6133
Technical support levels: 1.5807 1.5680 1.5546
Already made +15 pips profit on GBP/USD today from the following sent to clients only signal:
5:19 GMT Buy GBP/USD at 1.5849 SL 1.5823 TP 1.5909, exit sent at 8:04 GMT+1.
Today so far +94, yesterday +93, as shown in details at http://www.zifx.com/performance-past.php.

EU wheat futures turn lower, stronger euro weighs – Reuters

admin — Wed, 22 Feb 2012 07:01:21 +0000

Tue Feb 21, 2012 12:51pm EST

(Adds Italy, Benelux, updates prices)
    AMSTERDAM, Feb 21 - - European wheat futures eased on Tuesday in thin volumes on
lower Chicago Board of Trade futures and a stronger euro which makes euro-priced products less
competitive at outside markets.
    * U.S. corn and wheat futures fell more than 2 percent early on Tuesday, pressured by rainy
conditions in key growing areas and expectations that the U.S. government will issue a massive corn
acreage forecast this week, traders said.
    * "Increase of selling orders pressured prices in Chicago and the European wheat, which is more
expensive than soft Chicago contracts, had to follow," one trader said.
    * March milling wheat was down 4.25 euros or 1.96 percent at 212.75 euros a tonne by
1730 GMT and the more active May contract slipped 5.5 euros or 2.60 percent to 206 euros,
pulling back from resistance at 212 euros.
    * For the May benchmark, the next key support is estimated at 205 euros, traders said.
    * Algeria's state grains agency OAIC is holding a tender to buy 125,000 tonnes of
optional-origin milling wheat for shipment in May, European traders said on Tuesday.
    * Global stock markets eased on Tuesday after a long-awaited agreement on a second bailout for
Greece removed the threat of a disorderly bond default but left markets fearful of further problems
ahead.  

    GERMANY
    * German wheat was pushed down by the fall in Paris and Chicago futures, with demand from mills
generally sluggish and milling wheat being sold for animal feed because of continuing high feed
grain prices in parts of the country.
    * Standard quality milling wheat for March delivery in Hamburg was offered for sale down four
euros at 214 euros a tonne with buyers at around 212 euros.
    * "Demand for wheat from mills remains restrained because of poor flour milling (profit) margins
at current levels," one German trader said. "A lot of mills seem to have good supply cover into
March and some well into April."
    * German wheat prices have risen by about 15 euros a tonne since the beginning of this year,
pushed up by rises in international markets. But flour prices are not rising to compensate because
of a continued supermarket price war in Germany.
    * The deep frosts this month have caused some canals and rivers to freeze up and inland
logistics remains disrupted. The Danube and a series of other small rivers and canals were still
blocked by ice on Tuesday, but the warmer weather could help to free inland waterways in coming
days.
    * Feed wheat for nearby delivery in the South Oldenburg market near the Netherlands was offered
for sale at 214 euros a tonne, with buyers at around 212 euros.
    * "These are attractive to farmers in north German regions close to South Oldenburg and a lot of
milling wheat is currently being sold for animal feed," another trader said.
    * Falling exports of Black Sea feed grains, especially from Ukraine, is pushing more demand back
to the EU, traders said.
    ITALY
    * Wheat prices in Italy, a major grain importer in Europe, fell under pressure from strong
import flows from France and other major producers and also due to sluggish local milling demand,
traders said.
    * Bread quality soft wheat lost 3 euros on the week to 230-232 euros a tonne for prompt
delivery, including delivery charges, while higher grade wheat fell 1 euro to 247-254 and 266-275
euros a tonne, depending on quality, weekly trade data from Milan's cereals bourse showed.
    * Maize prices dropped 5 euros on the week to 203-204 euros a tonne, the data showed.
    BENELUX
    * Dutch feed wheat prices for deliveries in March were quoted at 215 euros a tonne while April,
May and June contracts were quoted at 212 euros a tonne, seven euros higher compared to last week.
The new crop for September-to-December deliveries was quoted at 194 euros a tonne, four euros up
from week ago.
    * In Belgium, March contracts were quoted at 208 euros a tonne, unchanged from last week. The
new crop for August-through-December deliveries by truck was quoted at 190 euros a tonne, also
unchanged from last week.
 * Prices as of 1720 GMT

  Product             Last    Change   Pct Move End 2011 Ytd Pct 

  Paris wheat         205.50    -6.00    -2.84   195.25     5.25
  London wheat        166.50    -1.90    -1.13   153.65     8.36
  Paris maize         207.25    -3.25    -1.54   197.25     5.07
  Paris rape          440.00     0.00    +0.00   421.50     4.39
  CBOT wheat          630.00   -17.75    -2.74   671.25    -6.15
  CBOT corn          630.75   -14.50    -2.25   654.75    -3.67
  CBOT soybeans      1272.50    -1.25    -0.10  1207.75     5.36
  Crude oil          104.67     1.43    +1.39    98.83     5.91
  Euro/dlr              1.33     0.06    +4.34     1.30     2.31
 * All grain and oilseed prices for second position. Paris futures prices in Euros per tonne, London
 wheat in pounds per tonne and CBOT in cents per bushel.

 (Reporting by Valerie Parent in Paris, Micheal Hogan in Hamburg, Svetlana Kovalyova in Milan and
Ivana Sekularac in Amsterdam; editing by Keiron Henderson)

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